A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has got something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
