It was eight weeks prior when Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed as Unai Emery scolded him for missing a through-ball. During that period, as Villa failed to win in six, the question was if his performances were an indicator or the source of the side's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, though, the manager's outburst proved to be decidedly more positive. After Rogers swept in his second strike to restore the lead for Villa, the boss ripped off his jacket, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The team marched on to a 10th successive win and despite not winning any of their first six fixtures, find themselves only three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Challengers?
This is an exceptionally difficult proposition to address. Past precedent, the perceived status of the club, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they have not been completely commanding this season, even as the wins have accumulated.
According to statistical analysis, twice all season has the side posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a side that have just won 10 in a row, the Villans look curiously susceptible – however at the moment the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy appears to be to exchange chances with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to bail them out with two precise efforts. This occurred at Leeds, it occurred in London, and again against United.
The initial strike came from a brilliant finish, curled right inside the upright from the corner of the box. For his second proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of his first capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, Manchester United registered more shots and more efforts on goal. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent the club must confront over the coming weeks. Rogers, surely, will not continue to thrashing the ball past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be an alternative path whereby, instead of luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins might resume adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent might become the force he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo will eventually return from injury, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defence.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
But then, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Aston Villa would be third at Christmas. And certainly earlier this season, no one envisioned the midfielder now would be leading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a crucial Three Lions star.
This winning streak must be cherished for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner stood in front of the home supporters when the game ended orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These spells are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
